August 26, 2026
Non-US market hours still drive Bitcoin’s largest moves. Despite the swift rise of Bitcoin spot ETFs, IBIT being the fastest ETF on record to hit $50 billion in AUM, a 10% or greater price move week still usually prints outside NYSE hours. Since January 2021, Asia has owned 51 of the 85 weeks with at least a 10% one-way move, and the largest share of the variance. Even so, US market hours have taken a larger piece of those big weeks, 24% of the variance before the January 2024 spot ETF listings, 33% after. While Asia is still the default, US hours have become a bigger part of the move than they used to be.
Note: Source: TwelveData hourly BTC/USD. Data from January 11, 2021 through August 24, 2026. A qualifying week is a greedy, non-overlapping 7×24-hour window in which Bitcoin moved at least 10% in one direction. Session shares are based on close-to-close squared returns and use Eastern Time. NYSE hours are Monday–Friday, 9:30am–4:00pm; U.S. evening is 4:00pm–8:00pm (7:00pm in winter); Asia / overnight runs from the end of U.S. evening to the next NYSE open; weekend runs from Friday evening through Sunday. Figures are rounded.
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